The nickel price in 2026 has moved between two opposing forces. Indonesia has cut its ore production quota to rein in oversupply, while nickel stocks in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses keep growing. In mid-September 2026, LME nickel traded at about US$16,700 per tonne, with LME stocks at roughly 274,000 tonnes.
How the Price Has Moved in 2026
- Late 2025: prices sit around US$14,000–15,000 per tonne under a prolonged surplus.
- January 2026: nickel breaks US$17,000, a 15-month high, after rising nearly 20% in three weeks. On January 19 it was quoted at about US$17,900.
- First half: the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) records volatile monthly averages, about US$17,100 in January and US$16,450 in February.
- September 2026: prices hold near US$16,700 per tonne.
Prices are higher than at the end of 2025 but do not yet signal a physical shortage.
The Driver: Indonesia’s RKAB Cut
The trigger for the early-year rally was the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources setting the 2026 ore production target under the RKAB (the annual work plan and budget that functions as a mining quota) at 250–260 million tonnes. Some reports put it at 260–270 million tonnes. Either way, it is about one third below the 379 million tonnes approved for 2025.
The government has three aims: to support prices, to preserve reserves, and to discipline companies that breach environmental rules. It has also changed RKAB approvals from three-year to annual, so quotas can be adjusted faster.
Indonesia supplies around 60% of the world’s nickel, so quota changes are felt immediately in the global market.
The Brake: Surplus and Stocks
The quota cut has not removed the oversupply.
- LME stocks rose from about 255,000 tonnes at the end of 2025 to about 274,000 tonnes in mid-September 2026.
- Surplus forecasts for 2026 are about 261,000 tonnes from ING and 275,000 tonnes from Nornickel.
- Battery demand is growing more slowly than once expected as nickel-free LFP batteries keep gaining share.
- Stainless steel, the largest nickel consumer, is recovering only gradually.
There is also a domestic problem. Indonesian processors say the ore quota does not cover smelter demand and estimate a shortfall of up to 100 million tonnes, which has led some smelters to import ore from the Philippines. For background, see our article on Indonesia’s nickel smelter investment.
Price Forecasts
| Source | View |
|---|---|
| ING (late 2025) | 2026 average about US$15,250 per tonne; market stays in surplus |
| APNI (July 2026) | US$17,000–20,000 per tonne if quota discipline holds |
| APNI (July 2026) | US$14,000–16,000 per tonne if RKAB revisions add too much quota |
The direction for the rest of the year depends on two things worth watching: how much extra quota is granted through RKAB revisions, and whether LME stocks start to fall.
What It Means for Industry
Miners. Higher prices help margins, but sales volumes are capped by quota.
Smelters. Tighter ore raises feed costs. Nickel pig iron (NPI) producers feel this most.
Stainless steel mills and foundries. Nickel is the main alloying element in 300-series stainless steel and in some alloy cast irons and cast steels. A higher nickel price feeds straight into material cost, so buyers of stainless castings should pay attention to raw material surcharge clauses in contracts. The role of nickel and molybdenum in corrosion resistance is discussed in our article on pitting corrosion.
Battery supply chain. HPAL projects that make battery-grade intermediates continue, but their economics depend on the nickel price and on the cost of inputs such as sulfur.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the nickel price now? In mid-September 2026, LME nickel was about US$16,700 per tonne. Prices change daily, so check LME data for the latest figure.
Why did nickel rise in early 2026? Because Indonesia cut its 2026 ore quota by about one third from the previous year, and the market priced in tighter supply.
Will nickel keep rising? Not necessarily. High stocks and a global surplus limit the upside. Forecasts range from about US$15,000 to US$20,000 per tonne depending on how consistently the quota policy is applied.
Conclusion
2026 marks a change in Indonesia’s role in the nickel market, from volume driver to supply manager. The RKAB cut lifted prices from their lows, but stocks and the global surplus still cap the rally. Industry players should watch quota revisions and LME stock movements, since both will set the price for the rest of this year and into 2027.
